Craig Kamman • Edina Realty | Wayzata, MN • October 12, 2026
Current Rate Snapshot
Freddie Mac PMMS (week of Oct 8, 2026) — the standard weekly survey of contract rates:
| Loan Type | Rate | Change vs. Last Week | 1 Year Ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.40% | ▲ +0.12% | 6.30% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.73% | ▲ +0.13% | 5.53% |
| 30-Year Jumbo | 7.65% | Bankrate daily lender survey (Oct 9) | |
| 5/1 ARM | 6.91% | Bankrate daily lender survey (Oct 10) | |
| 10/1 ARM | 6.77% | Bankrate daily lender survey (Oct 10) | |
Note: Freddie Mac PMMS measures contract rates on conforming purchase loans with 20% down and excellent credit. Bankrate daily lender surveys typically run 15-25 basis points higher. Both are correct for their methodology.
Market Context
10-Year Treasury — 6-Month Trend
The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.24% this morning — up 27 basis points from a month ago and up nearly a full percentage point from April’s 4.25% range. That rapid climb over six months is the direct engine behind the mortgage rate spike we’re watching.
Mortgage Spread vs. Treasury
The mortgage-to-Treasury spread sits at 2.16% — still elevated compared to the historical average of around 1.70%, but it has compressed slightly from the 2.40%+ levels we saw in late 2023. Lenders are pricing in a bit less risk premium, but the underlying Treasury rate is doing the heavy lifting on rate increases.
Fed Policy Outlook
The next FOMC meeting is October 28, 2026. As of October 10, CME FedWatch shows an 81.6% probability the Fed holds rates steady at that meeting. Markets are pricing in only about 18% odds of a hike. The 2-year Treasury at 5.02% — trading nearly even with the 10-year — reflects a market that sees the Fed close to its terminal rate. That’s the good news. The bad news is “higher for longer” looks increasingly like the baseline.
Twin Cities Local Impact
Here’s where the national rate story hits home for West Metro buyers and sellers:
| Metric | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Twin Cities Median Sales Price | ~$405,000 | ▲ +2.8% YoY |
| Statewide Median Sales Price | ~$405,000 metro / ~$370,000 Greater MN | ▲ +2.3% YoY |
| Pending Sales (Aug, statewide) | Up 2.9% | ▲ YoY |
| New Listings (Aug, statewide) | Down 1.8% | ▼ YoY |
| Inventory Level | Highest in 7 years | ▲ significant YoY |
| Cash Purchases (metro) | ~18% of sales | — |
Sources: Minnesota Realtors, Finance & Commerce (Oct 2026). August data released mid-September; September figures due mid-October.
What this means on the ground: inventory is at levels we haven’t seen in seven years, which means buyers have actual choices again. A $405,000 home at 7.40% with 20% down runs about $2,242/month in principal and interest. That same home at last year’s 6.30% was $2,003/month — a $239/month difference. For move-up buyers pulling equity, this is manageable. For first-time buyers stretched at the under-$400K price point, it’s real pressure.
The silver lining: sellers are more flexible than they’ve been in years. Contingent offers are back. Price reductions are happening. If you’ve been waiting for the multiple-offer frenzy to cool, this is that market.
Bottom Line
Rates are high and climbing — the 30-year is up 110 basis points year-over-year. The Fed is likely on hold through at least October 28, and the 10-year Treasury’s six-month run from 4.25% to 5.24% shows bond markets aren’t expecting relief soon either.
But here’s what I’d tell a buyer right now: the market has rebalanced in ways that haven’t been true since 2018. Inventory is up, sellers are negotiating, and you can actually write a contingent offer. Waiting for rates to drop is a bet with no clear timeline — and prices in the West Metro have shown no signs of pulling back. The math changes when rates come down, but the equity you’d have missed building is real.
For sellers: well-priced homes are still moving. Overpriced homes are now sitting. Price right the first time and your odds are still good.
What to Watch This Week
| Date | Event | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 13 | CPI (September) | Biggest data print of the week. Hot CPI = rates stay up or go higher. A soft print could give bond markets room to rally. |
| Thu Oct 15 | Retail Sales (September) | Strong consumer spending keeps inflationary pressure alive and supports higher-for-longer narrative. |
| Thu Oct 15 | Freddie Mac PMMS | Weekly mortgage rate benchmark. Will October 8’s 7.40% hold, or do we see 7.50%? |
| Fri Oct 16 | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Inflation expectations embedded in this survey can move bond markets. |
| Oct 28 | FOMC Meeting Decision | 81.6% odds of a hold. Any surprise hike or hawkish language would push the 10-year and mortgage rates higher immediately. |
Questions About Your West Metro Move?
Whether you’re buying, selling, or trying to figure out what these rates mean for your specific situation, give me a call. I work Wayzata, Plymouth, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, Hopkins, Golden Valley, and the broader West Metro every day.
Craig Kamman • Edina Realty | Wayzata
Call or text: 952-994-4451
Contact me directly about your Twin Cities real estate questions:
Disclaimer: This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or mortgage advice. Mortgage rates change daily and vary based on loan amount, credit score, down payment, property type, and lender. Consult a licensed mortgage professional for rate quotes specific to your situation. Real estate market data from Minnesota Realtors and MAAR reflects published surveys and may lag current conditions by several weeks. Craig Kamman is a licensed real estate agent with Edina Realty, Wayzata, MN. He is not a mortgage broker or financial advisor.