The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.66% this week — up 8 basis points from last week and the highest in about a year. The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.69%, and the spread between the two remains elevated at 1.97%, well above the ~1.70% historical average. Rates keep grinding higher while the Fed sends mixed signals about what happens next.
Current Rate Snapshot
| Loan Type | Current Rate | Week over Week |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed (Freddie Mac PMMS) | 6.66% | +0.08% ↑ |
| 15-Year Fixed (Freddie Mac PMMS) | 6.04% | +0.08% ↑ |
| 30-Year Jumbo (Bankrate) | ~6.81% | +0.08% ↑ |
| 5/1 ARM (Bankrate) | ~6.20% | Stable |
| 10/1 ARM (Bankrate) | ~6.46% | Stable |
Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS (July 30), Bankrate (Aug 1–3). A year ago the 30-year averaged 6.72%.
Treasury Trend
The 10-year Treasury has climbed from a February low near 3.96% to 4.69% today — a rise of more than 70 basis points in six months. It touched 4.74% on Friday before easing into this week. The red dashed line shows where the 30-year mortgage sits relative to the Treasury, and the gap between them is the story: lenders are keeping spreads wide, which is why mortgage rates feel especially heavy right now.
Mortgage Spread
The spread between the 30-year fixed rate and the 10-year Treasury is 1.97%, compared with the historical average of roughly 1.70%. Elevated spreads mean mortgage rates are running hotter than the Treasury move alone would suggest. When spreads eventually normalize — even with the 10-year flat — mortgage rates should ease a bit on their own.
Fed Watch
The Fed held its target rate at 3.50%–3.75% at the July 29 FOMC meeting, but it was a divided 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike — CNBC called it an “uncomfortable hold.”
The next FOMC meeting is September 16, and CME FedWatch currently prices roughly a 54% probability of a quarter-point cut — essentially a coin flip. Softer labor-market signals have traders leaning dovish, but sticky inflation and rising oil prices keep a hold in play. There is genuine uncertainty here, and mortgage rates will move on every data point between now and then.
What This Means for Twin Cities Buyers & Sellers
More inventory than we’ve seen in years. Active listings at 10,897 units are the highest supply level in roughly seven years, and pending sales are up nearly 10% year-over-year — the biggest gain in more than a year. June’s median sales price hit a record $410,000, up 2.1% year-over-year, the strongest increase of 2026 so far. Prices are still rising, just at a moderate, sustainable pace.
The rate squeeze is real. At 6.66%, the payment on a $410,000 home with 20% down is roughly $2,100 a month — about $245 more than at 5.5%. Buyers are absorbing higher payments, and pending sales still up nearly 10% tells me demand is holding up despite the rate pain.
A divided Fed is actually good news for mortgage shoppers. When the Fed votes 9-3 and markets price a September cut at even odds, the window for locking before any move lower starts to close. If rates drop later this year, refinancing is always an option — but waiting on the sidelines for a big rate break has been a losing bet all year.
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates are at their highest level in about a year, and the Fed just telegraphed real uncertainty about what comes next. The 30-year at 6.66% is up 8 basis points in a week, and the September FOMC meeting is a genuine coin flip. For buyers: the inventory story keeps improving — more choices and more negotiating room than in years. Find the right home, lock the rate, and plan to refinance if the Fed cuts this fall. For sellers: homes priced right are moving in about 42 days; overpriced listings sit. For refinancers: keep watching September — a cut would open a window worth exploring.
What to Watch This Week
- Mon Aug 3 — ISM Manufacturing PMI: weak read = rate-friendly, hot read = rate-unfriendly.
- Tue Aug 4 — JOLTS job openings: another labor-market temperature check.
- Wed Aug 5 — ADP private payrolls + ISM Services PMI: early signals ahead of Friday.
- Thu Aug 6 — Freddie Mac PMMS: is 6.66% the peak or a stepping stone?
- Fri Aug 7 — July Jobs Report (8:30am ET): the single biggest market mover this week.
Questions About Your Twin Cities Mortgage?
Whether you’re buying, selling, or refinancing, today’s market demands local expertise and real-time rate intelligence. I’m happy to walk through your specific situation — no pressure, no obligation.
Call or text Craig Kamman: 952-994-4451
Edina Realty | Wayzata, MN
Disclaimer: This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or mortgage advice. Rates are subject to change based on market conditions, credit profile, loan-to-value, and other factors. Always consult with a licensed mortgage professional for current rate quotes. Data sources include Freddie Mac PMMS, Bankrate, CME FedWatch, the Federal Reserve, Minnesota Realtors, and MAAR.