Current Rate Snapshot
| Loan Type | Current Rate | Change (Week over Week) |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.69% | +0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.01% | -0.03% |
| Jumbo (30Y Fixed) | ~6.79% | -0.02% |
| 5/1 ARM | ~6.25% | +0.05% |
| 10/1 ARM | ~6.64% | +0.18% |
Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS (August 6), Bankrate (August 8–10)
Key metric: The spread between the 30-year fixed rate and the 10-year Treasury sits at 2.00% — still well above the ~1.70% historical average.
Market Context
Treasury Yields
The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.69% this morning — up roughly 5 basis points from last Monday. It’s been a volatile week: yields pushed to 4.74% at the end of July, dipped to 4.62% midweek on the jobs shock, and have climbed back to 4.69% as markets digest what Friday’s weak jobs report means for the Fed. The 2-year sits at 4.40%, keeping the yield curve in a mildly positive (+0.29) posture.
Key trends over the past 6 months:
- The 10Y has climbed from a low of ~3.96% in late February to 4.69% today — a rise of more than 70 basis points.
- The mortgage spread (30Y fixed minus 10Y Treasury) is 2.00% — still above the ~1.70% historical average, meaning lenders continue to keep margins wide.
- Mortgage News Daily’s index shows the 30-year easing to ~6.74% on Friday — the lowest since July 20 — after the jobs report.
Federal Reserve Signals
The July jobs report changed the conversation. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July — an unexpected decline driven by a drop of 53,000 government jobs and softness in retail, leisure, and hospitality. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%, but for the wrong reasons (fewer people looking for work). Reuters put it plainly: markets “dialed back rate hike expectations.”
That’s a dramatic flip from a week ago. Heading into Friday, CME FedWatch showed roughly 62% odds of a hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting — the market was seriously pricing in a move higher. After the jobs miss, CME FedWatch now shows about 60% odds the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in September. Kalshi traders put the hold odds even higher, at 65%.
The takeaway: the Fed outlook is swinging wildly month to month. The July 29 meeting was a divided 9-3 hold with three presidents voting for a hike; now a soft jobs number has traders betting the Fed stays put. The September 16 meeting is the next real pivot point, and this week’s inflation data will determine which way the odds break.
Inflation & Economic Data
- July jobs report (Aug 7): payrolls -23,000 (first negative print in months), unemployment 4.1% — labor market clearly cooling.
- Core PCE remains above the Fed’s 2% target — the reason hike talk was alive at all.
- This week: July CPI (Wednesday), PPI (Thursday), Retail Sales (Friday) — the first inflation data since the jobs shock.
Twin Cities Local Impact
June 2026 Housing Data (Source: MAAR / Minnesota Realtors)
| Metric | June 2026 | Change vs. Year Ago |
|---|---|---|
| New Listings | 7,268 | +10.5% |
| Pending Sales | 5,171 | +9.7% |
| Inventory (Active) | 10,897 units | +5.1% |
| Median Sales Price | $410,000 | +2.1% |
| Days on Market | 42 days | +7.7% |
Statewide: sellers averaged 98.8% of asking (99.6% in the metro).
What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
The local market is still moving. Pending sales up nearly 10% year-over-year, the biggest gain in more than a year, and the June median price of $410,000 was a record for the month. Active inventory at 10,897 units is the highest supply level in roughly seven years. Buyers have more choices and more negotiating room than they’ve had in years — and they’re still showing up.
Rates are the wildcard — again. The 30-year at 6.69% means the payment on a $410,000 home (20% down) is roughly $2,100/month — about $250 more than at 5.5%. Last week the market was bracing for a hike; now it’s a coin flip on a hold. That whiplash is exactly why I keep telling clients: stop trying to time the Fed. If the numbers work at today’s rate, buy now and refinance later if rates ease.
The July jobs report is quietly good news for mortgage shoppers. A cooler labor market historically leads to lower long-term rates. The 10-year Treasury actually dipped to 4.62% on Friday before bouncing back — a small taste of what rate relief would look like if inflation cooperates this week.
Bottom Line / Takeaway
Mortgage rates are holding just under the year’s peak, and Friday’s jobs miss just rewrote the Fed’s September script. The 30-year sits at 6.69% — up slightly week-over-week — but the market’s biggest story is the flip from ~62% hike odds to ~60% hold odds in a single trading day.
For buyers: The inventory story keeps improving — more choices, more negotiation room, and pending sales still up nearly 10%. The rate pain is real, but the window logic hasn’t changed: lock when the numbers work, refinance if September brings relief. Waiting for a dramatic drop has burned buyers all year.
For sellers: Homes priced right are still moving in about 42 days, and sellers are averaging 99.6% of asking in the metro. June set a record median of $410,000. But buyers are rate-sensitive — overpriced listings sit. Price it right and let the inventory tailwind work for you.
For refinancers: Rates are roughly a point above the early-2026 lows. The path to a refinance window now runs through this week’s CPI print and the September 16 FOMC meeting. If inflation surprises low, the hold odds climb and so do your chances of a better rate this fall.
What to Watch This Week
Wednesday, August 12 — July CPI (8:30am ET). The big one. After the jobs miss, this is the data that decides whether the Fed narrative stays “hold” or flips back toward “hike.” Hot CPI = rates up; cool CPI = rate relief rally.
Thursday, August 13 — July PPI + Freddie Mac PMMS. Producer prices give an early read on pipeline inflation. PMMS will show whether 6.69% holds or moves.
Friday, August 14 — July Retail Sales (8:30am ET). The consumer’s health check. Weak spending reinforces the cooling narrative; a strong print complicates the “hold” bet.
Need Mortgage Guidance?
Navigating today’s market — whether you’re buying, selling, or refinancing — requires local expertise and real-time rate intelligence.
Call or text Craig Kamman
📞 952-994-4451
Edina Realty | Wayzata, MN
I am happy to chat through your specific situation: no pressure, no obligation — just honest, experienced advice.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or mortgage advice. Rates are subject to change based on market conditions, credit profile, loan-to-value, and other factors. Always consult with a licensed mortgage professional for current rate quotes. Data sources include Freddie Mac PMMS, Bankrate, CME FedWatch, the Federal Reserve, BLS, Minnesota Realtors, and MAAR.